Adding Value with Shy Assar

The Dangerous Trap for CA Developers

Episode Summary

Are we sitting at a massive tipping point for industrial real estate development in California? In this episode of Adding Value, Shy sits down with Mark Baranick, Vice President of Project Development at Millie and Severson, General Contractors, to pull back the layers on what is actually happening on the ground in industrial construction right now. After a sluggish 2025, pre-construction and estimating teams are completely buried with a massive wave of pent-up demand. But with growing activity comes a new set of challenges: fluctuating material lead times, rising commodity prices driven by the nationwide data center boom, and new union coalitions entering the space. Mark breaks down exactly what developers need to know to protect their pro formas and maintain speed-to-market in today’s volatile landscape.

Episode Notes

About Millie & Severson:

Operating for over 81 years, Millie & Severson is a premier, employee-owned (ESOP) general contractor in California and Nevada. Known for their "big projects, no egos" culture, they are a dominant force in industrial tilt-up construction, partnering with global giants like Amazon, Prologis, Trammell Crow, and Brookfield.

Timestamps:

0:00 - Introduction: The Industrial Tipping Point

02:15 - Entitlement Risk & AB 98: When Land Value Goes to Zero

05:40 - Sluggish 2025 vs. The 2026 Surge in Construction Starts

08:12 - Volatility in the Trades: Steel, Rebar, & Panelized Roof Pricing

11:30 - How Data Centers are Driving Up Steel Lead Times

14:50 - Geopolitics, Gas Prices, and the Macro Impact on Budgets

18:25 - The History & Unique Culture of Millie & Severson (The Power of an ESOP)

22:40 - The Real Numbers: Approximate Hard Costs per SF Today

26:15 - The Evolution of Unions in California Tilt-Up Construction

31:10 - Project Spotlight: Core5’s 1M SF Facility in Menifee

35:45 - Advice to Hungry Brokers: How to Correctly Underwrite Land Value